Tid: 9 september 2015 kl 9.15-10.00.Seminarierummet 3721, Institutionen för matematik, KTH, Lindstedtsvägen 25, plan 7. Karta!
Föredragshållare: Annelie Johansson
Titel: Claims reserving on macro- and micro-level (Master's thesis)
Abstract Three methods for claims reserving are compared on two data sets. The first two methods are the commonly used chain ladder method that uses aggregated payments and the relatively new method, double chain ladder, that apart from the payments data also uses the number of reported claims. The third method is more advanced, data on micro-level is needed such as the reporting delay and the number of payment periods for every single claim. The two data sets that are used consist of claims with typically shorter and longer settlement time, respectively. The questions considered are if you can gain anything from using a method that is more advanced than the chain ladder method and if the gain differs from the two data sets. The methods are compared by simulating the reserves distributions as well as comparing the point estimates of the reserve with the real out-of-sample reserve. The results show that there is no gain in using the micro-level method considered. The double chain ladder method on the other hand performs better than the chain ladder method. The difference between the two data sets is that the reserve in the data set with longer settlement times is harder to estimate, but no difference can be seen when it comes to method choice.
|Sidansvarig: Filip Lindskog