Tid: 10 december 2001 kl 1515-1600
Plats : Seminarierummet 3733, Institutionen för matematik, KTH, Lindstedts väg 25, plan 7. Karta!
Föredragshållare: Johan Sahlén.
Titel: Genetic Testing and Pricing of Insurance Contracts. (Examensarbete)
The development of genetic tests for hereditary disorders gives insurers the possibility to make better risk assessments, if they are allowed to use results from such tests in their underwriting process.
The use of such information is controversial, and there has been much discussion about whether insurers should be allowed to use genetic test results or not. It is natural to ask questions like: If insurers have access to genetic test results, what is the cost to an insured individual who has tested positive, in terms of extra premiums; or what is the cost to insurers, in terms of adverse selection, if they are not allowed to use results from genetic testing?
In this thesis it is shown how Markov models can be used to approach these questions. Such a model is used to investigate Huntington's disease, a severe monogenic disorder, and its impact on life insurance. We also try a general approach, which deals with multifactorial disorders and increased levels of mortality, without specifying the disease.
The results from the computations imply that the cost to all insured individuals, in terms of adverse selection, is reasonable, even under quite extreme assumptions of adverse selection.
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